Date: April 30, 2025
By: A Connecticut Citizen Who’s Paying Attention
📢 The White House Email
The Trump administration is sending out a polished, self-congratulatory economic update titled:
“MEMO: First 100 Days Economy” — and it’s loaded with numbers meant to convince Americans that we’re thriving.
Here’s a snapshot of what the memo claims:
- 345,000 jobs created since January
- 54% of those in non-government sectors
- Manufacturing and construction jobs up
- 15,000 federal jobs cut
- Drug prices down 2%, gas down 7%, eggs down 50%
- Wage growth for middle- and low-income workers
- Mortgage rates down
- $5+ trillion in new U.S. investments
- Deregulation supposedly saving $11,000 per family over the next decade
Sounds great, right?
🧨 The Truth: The Economy Contracted in Q1 2025
Despite the hype, the hard data says otherwise:
- 📉 GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1 2025 — the first contraction in nearly 3 years (MarketWatch).
- 🇺🇸 The main culprit? Trump’s tariffs triggered a massive import surge as businesses raced to buy before prices jumped — creating the largest trade deficit on record.
- 🛑 Consumer spending — the backbone of our economy — slowed dramatically, growing just 1.8%.
- 🧊 Business investment was propped up by stockpiling, not long-term confidence.
- 🪓 Federal job cuts? Maybe “efficient” on paper, but they hurt critical services and inject more uncertainty into already unstable institutions.
🔬 Let’s Break It Down — Line by Line
🧮 Job Creation
Claim: 345,000 new jobs created.
🔎 Reality: True, but misleading.
- Job growth is in line with preexisting trends — not a Trump miracle.
- 9,000 manufacturing jobs is a tiny rebound compared to prior losses.
- The 15,000 federal job cuts undermine public services, not just bureaucracy.
đź’¸ Inflation Claims
Claim: Prices are down — drugs, gas, eggs, etc.
🔎 Reality:
- Eggs were high due to avian flu — their price drop is a natural correction, not policy.
- Gas prices are down due to global oil dynamics, not Trump.
- Prescription drug prices may reflect prior legislation — such as Biden-era Medicare negotiation provisions.
🧱 Investment Boom?
Claim: $5+ trillion in investment 🔎 Reality:
- These announcements — from IBM, Apple, TSMC, NVIDIA, etc. — were already in motion before Trump’s return.
- Many of them span 5–10 years.
- UAE’s $1.4T “pledge” is aspirational, not guaranteed capital.
- No tax or industrial policy has yet passed to support these claims.
📉 Wages & Mortgages
Claim: Real wages up, mortgage rates down 🔎 Reality:
- Wages are up 0.4% — barely above inflation.
- Mortgage rates dropped due to Fed actions and recession fears — not White House policy.
đźš« The Deregulation Myth
Trump’s memo claims Americans will save $11,000 per household over a decade thanks to regulatory rollbacks.
🔎 Reality:
- No citation. No math. Just a made-up number.
- Deregulation can undermine health, safety, and consumer protections, leading to long-term costs.
- History shows that aggressive deregulation benefits large corporations, not working families.
🎯 The Real Scorecard
| Category | Memo Claim | Reality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Jobs | 345k created | Yes, but continuation of past momentum |
| GDP | Unmentioned | -0.3% contraction (confirmed) |
| Prices | Down | Mostly external/global trends |
| Investment | $5T pledged | Mostly old or long-term announcements |
| Wages | Up 0.4% | Real, but fragile and easily wiped by tariffs |
| Deregulation | $11k in savings | No source, speculative, likely exaggerated |
| Market Confidence | Omitted | Volatile — S&P has dropped significantly |
⚠️ Final Word: Don’t Let the Email Fool You
This is classic PR overreach — trying to reframe a contracting economy as a thriving one using big numbers, fuzzy logic, and half-truths.
If the data says we’re shrinking, if costs are climbing, and if instability is increasing, no memo can gaslight that away.
We must hold our leaders — and their talking points — accountable.
The economy doesn’t run on slogans. It runs on facts.
Share this post. Fact-check everything. And if you’re in Connecticut — start asking your reps to call this nonsense out, loudly.
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